Unintended Consequences of 54.5 M.P.G. Fuel Economy Standard

[38P]

HRM's latest drive your hooptie-rod daily editorial couldn't have come at a much more appropriate time, given the following grim statistics caused by the law increasing Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards each year through 2025:

-- "National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) analyses indicate that the [increasing fuel economy standards]will add $3,000 to $4,800 to the average price of new vehicles for models from now until 2025. Moreover, this price increase does not include the $2,000 to $6,000 in total interest charges that many borrowers would have to pay over the life of a 36-60 month loan."

--"6 million to 11 million low-income drivers will be unable to afford new vehicles during this 13-year period, according to the National Auto Dealers Association (NADA). These drivers will essentially be eliminated from the new vehicle market, because they cannot afford even the least expensive new cars without a loan - and many cannot meet minimal lending standards to get that loan."

-- "[F]ar fewer used cars are available today, because the $3-billion 'cash for clunkers' program destroyed 690,000 perfectly drivable cars and trucks that otherwise would have ended up in used car lots. . . . Exacerbating the situation, the average price of used cars and trucks shot from $8,150 in December 2008 to $11,850 three years later, say the NADA and Wall Street Journal."

-- "The NHTSA, Brookings Institution, Harvard School of Public Health, National Academy of Sciences and USA Today discovered a shocking reality. Even past and current mileage standards have resulted in thousands of additional fatalities, and tens of thousands of serious injuries, every year – above what would have happened if the government had not imposed those standards.

They also learned that drivers in lightweight cars were up to twelve times more likely to die in a crash -- and far more likely to suffer serious injury and permanent disabilities.

Increasing mileage requirements by a whopping 19 mpg above current rules will make nearly all cars even less safe than they are today."

Source: Harry R. Jackson, Jr., CFACT.com

More critical to Bangshifters, 54.5 m.p.g. fuel economy standards are going to dry up the supplies of cheap RWD V8s necessary to many grassroots Bangshifters' participation in the sport/hobby.

[SpiderGearsMan]

[squirrel]

That's odd....making cars that get real good mileage usually means making them smaller, with smaller engines. Think Geo Metro. Cheap. Yet we're to believe that this will make them cost more?

[milner351]

Making a car that gets better mileage doesn't have to be expensive, until the government slaps on a bunch of safety and emission requirements on top of the required mileage standards - then it gets expensive, especially when you throw in all the "infotainment" features everybody wants in a new car.

[38P]

That's odd....making cars that get real good mileage usually means making them smaller, with smaller engines. Think Geo Metro. Cheap. Yet we're to believe that this will make them cost more?

GEO Metro . . . there's a real Bangshifter's dream car. . . er . . . Death trap. Not remotely legal to build anymore under current NHTSA regs. All the airbags in the world don't repeal the laws of physics. "The jug hits the rock, or the rock hits the jug, but the jug still gets it."

Speaking of death traps that are still legal,

I'm thinking that one of these with a 350+ h.p. RB Racing turbo Orca (http://www.rbracing-rsr.com/113orca.htm ) would be hot in the almost V8-less 54.5 m.p.g. era.

[38P]

What would the hide-bound traitionalists say if you showed up at the H.A.M.B. Drags with a Morgan 3-wheeler?

[squirrel]

You'd have to ask Ryan if he'd let it in. I have no idea. But if it were a real one, instead of a modern "recreation", it would probably go over pretty well.

I see a bright future for the stiff mileage requirements. It might make some of my old junk become valuable one day.

[Deaf Bob]

You'd have to ask Ryan if he'd let it in. I have no idea. But if it were a real one, instead of a modern "recreation", it would probably go over pretty well.

I see a bright future for the stiff mileage requirements. It might make some of my old junk become valuable one day.

Or illegal?
Just food for thought..

[Thumpin455]

I would say that is the intended consequences, no more V8s and no used cars worth a damn. Its not just the current guys plan either, they all want that so they can keep the economy building more and more stuff at an ever increasing rate, which means we need to consume more and more all the time. We have disposable everything else, why not entirely disposable cars that cost a fortune?

54mpg wouldnt be that hard to hit and keep the power, even with a V8, but not on gas. The thermal efficiency just isnt there. When you waste more than 80% of the energy in the fuel, its not going to get great mileage, but it makes a wonderful heater. When you have to have low compression to keep the fuel from igniting whenever it damn well feels like it, you really arent going to get good mileage.

Stop thinking like the majority of people, and start thinking like hot rodders you are. You know, find ways around things to make it better. Try stuff out and do some exploration with the stuff you have. Years ago people thought if you had a V8 and you made decent power with it, you would get crappy mileage. Here we are with engines that can get 25-30mpg and make between 300 and 1000 hp, when just 20 years ago 300hp meant 10mpg. Stop complaining and find a way to do it better, or just wait for those of us working on those things to do it, then you can call us crazy and say it wont work, even when it does.... you know, the way most people do things..

[TC]

I can give a rats ass about buying a new car, I've done it a few time and I won't do it again..... It's just a waste of money when in 3 years the car is only worth 1/2 of what you paid for it and you still have a couple of years of payments left...... Plus the tags and insurance are through the roof.......

[Ron Ward]

I haven't picked up an NHRA rulebook in the last two years, but the last time I checked, any and all three-wheeled vehicles were prohibited. I don't know if the HAMB drags follow NHRA rules, so it may be irrelevant.

Speedy, you hit on a topic that I have strong feelings about. Namely, offering AFFORDABLE cars to the general poplulation. The manufacturers keep adding stuff as standard equipment to increase the profit margin on these cars. Do we really need PS, PB, PW, PDL, power seats, etc? No. But, if the cars were offered like that, the manufacturers wouldn't profit from the increased cost of the car.

Look at it this way. If the actual mfg's COST of a car was $10K and they marked it up a fair amount of, say, 33%, the car would have a retail price of $15K. The manufacturer would profit $5K. But, if the actual cost of a car was $15K (inflated by all the doodads and geegaws) then with the same 33% markup, the retail price would be $22.5K with a profit of $7.5K per car doing nothing other than adding cost to the production, they have netted a bigger profit. No additional work, just more profit. It doesn't seem quite right to me.

But yes, I agree the proposed CAFE standards are going to have a profound effect on car prices and sales in the not too distant future.


Ron

[38P]

I would say that is the intended consequences, no more V8s and no used cars worth a damn. Its not just the current guys plan either, they all want that so they can keep the economy building more and more stuff at an ever increasing rate, which means we need to consume more and more all the time. We have disposable everything else, why not entirely disposable cars that cost a fortune?

54mpg wouldnt be that hard to hit and keep the power, even with a V8, but not on gas. The thermal efficiency just isnt there. When you waste more than 80% of the energy in the fuel, its not going to get great mileage, but it makes a wonderful heater. When you have to have low compression to keep the fuel from igniting whenever it damn well feels like it, you really arent going to get good mileage.

Stop thinking like the majority of people, and start thinking like hot rodders you are. You know, find ways around things to make it better. Try stuff out and do some exploration with the stuff you have. Years ago people thought if you had a V8 and you made decent power with it, you would get crappy mileage. Here we are with engines that can get 25-30mpg and make between 300 and 1000 hp, when just 20 years ago 300hp meant 10mpg. Stop complaining and find a way to do it better, or just wait for those of us working on those things to do it, then you can call us crazy and say it wont work, even when it does.... you know, the way most people do things..

Thumpin, that's the other side of unintended consequences. I'm certain that when the special interests cooked up CAFE and a host of other anti-muscle regs in the early '70s, they never anticipated a 650 h.p. Corvette or a 662 h.p. Shelby in 2013.

On the other hand, if it were legal to build vehicles for the American market under the ECE regulations followed by virtually every other industrialized country (other than the USA), we'd already have a great selection of high-torque turbo diesels for sale that would reduce the "pressure" to can affordable V8s.

[38P]

I can give a rats ass about buying a new car, I've done it a few time and I won't do it again..... It's just a waste of money when in 3 years the car is only worth 1/2 of what you paid for it and you still have a couple of years of payments left...... Plus the tags and insurance are through the roof.......

But, Tubbs, the problem is that the selection of Bangshiftable used cars will likely dramatically decrease over the next fifteen years, driving prices through the roof on light RWDs. And unlike the USAF's fleet of evergreen B-52H aircraft, a lot of vintage and near-vintage tin gets used up and destroyed every year.

Certainly, there will be probably be more "recreations" and kit-type cars to partially fill in the void, but these "component" rods will price many out of the hobby . . . . unless Bangshifters become FWD tuners or come up with some new way to repackage avaliable JY stuff into interesting street machines.

Of course, "Bangshifting" of motorcycles and light trucks may take up some of the slack out of sheer economic necessity.

[Russell]

--"6 million to 11 million low-income drivers will be unable to afford new vehicles during this 13-year period, according to the National Auto Dealers Association (NADA). These drivers will essentially be eliminated from the new vehicle market, because they cannot afford even the least expensive new cars without a loan - and many cannot meet minimal lending standards to get that loan."

Low income drivers should NOT drive new cars! The last thing a poor person that lives pay check to pay check needs is a new car payment.

[38P]

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