Will Street Rods (1948 and older) live on?

[Supersport350]

This thought crossed my mind the other day. For the most part, the street rod crowd, represented by anything pre-1948, tends to be an older crowd. For the most part, many have become out of reach for many of us, as they tend to be a few tiers above the prices muscle cars are going for, and they've gotten up there too.

There is no doubt that there will be those who keep the street rods alive, but will their numbers be enough? I think a lot of the reason that the "rat rod" scene is so popular amongst the younger street rodders is simply because of cost. They take what most high dollar street rodders would consider junk, and build themselves a car. They go for the obscure when it comes to powertrain, and the cheaper the better.

So who will buy all these $50,000+, and even $100,000+ cars as a generation begins to pass away? Will a weaker market drive the prices down?

I just feel that while street rods are cool, even awesome, they simply don't have the connection with the younger generations. People can relate to muscle cars, simply because you can still buy a Mustang, Camaro, Challenger, Vette, and even GTO's recently. There is that muscle car connection, where they know where the modern version was born.

Will this genre of car survive the next few decades? Will they drop in value significantly? With recent companies, two at least that I know of, building 40 Ford Coupes out of steel, and others from the 30's have been built for years, am I greatly underestimating the market? I'm simply basing my estimates on the age of those who drive them.

I'm not bagging on street rods by any means, as I'd love to build something that would fall in line one of these. Sadly, the 1952 DeSoto I had my eye on near home disappeared recently.

[squirrel]

I think you're right to think that they will probably go down in value as the years go by, and fewer guys are interested in them.

btw for some of us older guys, a 52 desoto is about 4 years to new to ever be a street rod. 48 and older only.

[DanStokes]

My answer is "Who knows"! In the current market, us old guys ARE dying off (or heading to the rest home) but you never know WHAT the next fad will be. Will computer nerd millionaires discover pre-48 cars? Will the ricer kids have a cultural rethink? No way to predict.

The stock of original iron is about gone but the repro stuff may keep the scene alive for decades to come, especially if the price comes down.

Like I said, it's anybody's guess.

Dan

[38P]

Other wild-card factors to consider

-- the effect of collectors (numbers could be smaller but collections larger if prices come down)

--tin attrition (except for bodies that are being "repoped" (e.g. '32 Fords; T-buckets) use, abuse and even weather disasters will naturally decrease the supply of available pre-48 "tin.")

--the SEMA effect (the aftermarket won't shrink quietly and the advertising/media/supplier complex will stoke demand)

--the Hollywood effect (one or two hit movies with rods (i.e. something with the impact that "American Graffiti" had in the '70s) and demand will skyrocket)

-- the geezer effect (today's rat rodder is inevitably tomorrow's Hawaiian-shirt-and-flip-flop-wearing greybeard . . . and with more money and time, the quality of their rods, if not the style, will improve)

--the simplicity effect (55+ m.p.g. CAFE vehicles will likely be even more intimidating than today's new cars, pushing many tinkerers further into the past to survive . . . pre-48 rods are like Harley-based choppers . . . if you can fog a mirror, you can probably figure out how to work on 'em)

--the Goodguys effect (to a certain extent, popularity will rise and fall based on the social opportunities to use and abuse rods)

--the reenactor effect (the U.S. Civil War was over 140 years ago . . . yet thousands still reenact its battles . . . some gun lovers attend "cowboy shooting" reenactments from the movies . . . more people make quilts now than anytime during the past 50 years. . . . So it stands to reason that the nostalgia "reenactor" aspect of rodding may ebb and flow, but will never completely die off)

--the carbon effect (as carbon taxes and more emissions regulations take hold, there will likely be strong use pressures on rodding that will result in reductions in participation at the margins and steely-eyed rebellion among some of the stalwarts)

--the population explosion effect (as Earth's population increases, the percentage market penetration of rodding can go down while still using up all available pre-48 resources)

Bottom line: The numbers of participants, styles and cost structures may change but the human motivations which have always fueled rodding passion among a minority of enthusiasts likely will not.

[squirrel]

Lots of interesting considerations there. Although I disagree about the tin attrition thing....from what I've seen, far more old cars are being brought back to life every year, than are destroyed by collisions/fires/etc

[OldMachinist]

The attraction of old trucks and I mean larger than pickups seems to be dieing as the older generation dies off. Do you think the same will happen with street rods?
Its interesting to see the proliferation of 55-57 Chevy bodies being reproduced and they are pricer to build than street rods. How does that fit the discussion?

[squirrel]

the repops....I think there are just a lot of folks who don't really like old stuff, they gotta have new. It's not like there aren't any original body tri 5s for sale, they're everywhere.

[38P]

Lots of interesting considerations there. Although I disagree about the tin attrition thing....from what I've seen, far more old cars are being brought back to life every year, than are destroyed by collisions/fires/etc

The high scrap metal prices have also taken a toll on the number of "farm find" core bodies out there (more of a problem with '49-'81 models though).

My logic on this point is simple: the supply was fixed when the OEMs stopped making 'em. So the supply's been declining for non-repoped tin ever since.

Certainly, once "tin" makes it past the most vulnerable years (first 35 to 40 years) it's more likely to be preserved as "vintage" or "antique" (not sure if this will be the case for most emission control era cars, though). And there are certainly rusty and neglected cores being brought back all the time (depleting the supply of such cores and junkyard spare parts).

But even with all the foregoing, use, abuse, theft, accidents, natural decay (rust never sleeps) and weather events will continue to reduce supplies. Factor in exports (lots of Barrett-Jackson stuff is leaving the country), and the supply of traditional "tin" goes down every year.

If there's demand, the market will adjust . . . different models and even brands become "cool" . . . new reproductions become available . . . build styles, materials, and techniques change to fit what's affordable and available.

Still, I see "tin loss" as a factor that must be considered. After all, I haven't seen any $25 Model Ts or $200 Model As or even rust-free $500 "fat fenders" (even factoring in inflation) for a long, long time . . . .

[squirrel]

The price keeps going up, but there is still a whole bunch of old tin out there. And it's being saved for the most part, not destroyed (thanks to those rising prices).

If you want to buy a few, there's a yard about 30 minutes north of me that has a whole bunch of 20s-60s stuff they are selling off for $500-1500 each. They are not selling very fast, supply far exceeds demand. That price thing again. So many guys talk about how there aren't any old cars left, yet very few of those same guys will put their money where their mouth is.

[Barry Donovan]

individual states kill it.
my own is about the biggest egotistical retard at the helm of automobile laws ever.

I built my own more than once..and something in the unbelievable trait of apes minds kills it with the right credentials and opinions.

the cost to go emission easy for anybody is still 3 grand just for an injection setup.

who in their right mind would want to step up. Even with knowledge electrically and physics at the request of anybodys internet way beyond a cars origin..

somebody has got to come down from the high horse.

and this stereotype stuff. I personally despise coupes...yet they are the winners. pre 1948? who gives a crap.

the stampede of old rock head needs a bit more dynamics to increase the number of rods.

In the stick town I spent a few yers in..drove around with an atv alot. one of the old landowners gathered a huge number of air force sedans. no value in the realm of collectors. just late 40s sedans..into the 50s. When I learned they drove them to their resting place I almost pooped a brick.

At 15 I inquired about finding one, just one...spark up the old six with cloth covered plug wires and drive the sumbitch. never happened..but that will is still there (I'd even try today)

[Monk]

I dunno.......I think something like a Tri 5 Chevy would be of
interest many years down the road.


My wonders are all the fiberglass cars being built.
Remember the Cobra kit cars several years ago bringing big bucks.......they're cheap now.
Law of supply and demand.......I think the '41 Willys aren't far behind.

[prostreet34]

I don't think the pre 1948 is going to go away, but I can't see it growing much more. Like mentioned, it seems to invole the older crowd. I think the younger generation is acustomed to modern comfort and drivability. There is alot of trade offs in driving early stuff, like space, you don't see to many large people driving early cars. With modern cars being so easy to make big power and still have all the comforts, they will continue to draw the younger crowd, plus they are easier to finace.

I do a few big shows a year and I can tell you for a fact, that there is a much larger draw to my 1951 truck than my prostreet 1934 street rod. I don't care much for the typical street rod, somewhere along time it seems we haven forgotten what a hot rod is all about. The reason why people removed the fenders and replaced the bangers with flat heads or whatever they could find, in the early days, was to make them fast. Now its about a 10,000 dollar paint job and a crate engine.

It just ashame that ther are so few people left with the skill, desire and patience to take on a project that they can't mail order the entire build. I'm 42 years old and accually prefer tradional styled cars , but I find that I seem to be by far one of the youngest that has a great appreciation for them, over street rods or muscle cars.

There will alwys be a draw to these cars, and to me it seems the trend is that the people who are now buying alot of these car from the people who original built them ( that are moving on or passing on ) know nothing about them and don't care to know. I guess it just amazes me how many people own a hot rod they can't work on.

These cars will always be around, I would t think that there will be less new builds being done, but there sure seems to be alot of companies making early sheet metal and even complete bodies, so I hope I'm wrong

sorry for the rant,
Jason

[38P]

But it is a really bitchin truck . . . .

[38P]

The price keeps going up, but there is still a whole bunch of old tin out there. And it's being saved for the most part, not destroyed (thanks to those rising prices).

If you want to buy a few, there's a yard about 30 minutes north of me that has a whole bunch of 20s-60s stuff they are selling off for $500-1500 each. They are not selling very fast, supply far exceeds demand. That price thing again. So many guys talk about how there aren't any old cars left, yet very few of those same guys will put their money where their mouth is.

One thing to point out . . . most Americans live east of the Mississippi, in Texas or on the left coast. And over 80% of Americans now live in urban areas. Demand seems to outstrip supply in many of those areas. The true cost of a $1,500 core out of the desert is ~ $2,500+ to someone back East. Even total junk at the big swap meets tends to carry big price tags. Not too many urbanized, entry-level Bangshifters can overcome such headwinds.

As for me, I've squirreled away just about all the local authorities will tolerate. Too bad I filled up my storage with stuff newer than 1953. But then I haven't found a good enough "deal." on anything that could pass for pre-48 rod material.

[TC]

Just remember there will always be some rich guy with more money than he knows what to do with and will pay way more than a car is worth......... It sucks for the rest of us broke ass dicks, because these guys that don't have a care in the world about money and how much stuff costs are ruining it for the rest of us....... In the end HotRods will be a rich man's toy, I mean just look at the aftermarket they are already geared towards the higher income levels.... I mean what blue color working man can afford a $2500 EFI system, or a $7000 6 speed transmission, or a $4000 blower........ Face it greed and ignorance ruin it for everyone......